Solving the Dating Problem 1

Aug 04, 2024

I know eight men “IRL” who are fit, intelligent and well paid, all single and not having luck finding a long term partner. Some of them have given up.

I’m single and haven’t been on a date in the past 6 months.

My boomer father once suggested I join Match.com. That, and “Run from mental illness,” is the dating advice I received. I’m open-sourcing figuring it out.

After college, I turned to YouTube to learn about meeting women. I found entertaining pick-up artist videos. I learned about “game” and South America.

The pickup people talked about three ways of meeting people:

Social Circle - meeting through friends
Online - the apps
Cold Approach - talking to strangers in public

I’ve actually gotten phone numbers and dates from cold approach. It can be fun. But I would not recommend this as the primary strategy for finding a life partner.

There was a brief blip in humanity’s timeline, between WW2 and Y2K, when cold approach at bars was the cultural norm for partner finding.

Louise Perry

touched on spoke about it on Modern Wisdom.

Gen X people talk about of going up to someone in a bar, and this being a way of striking up relationships. I think that was a very brief period of history. Sort of post-sexual revolution but pre-internet, where that was considered normal.
But the normal way that people start relationships in the vast majority of cultures is like semi-arranged marriage. Not, you've never met this person before. But sort of, you're introduced by family members, mutual friends, you're known in the community, you go to the same church, whatever it is. And then both of your families like, consent to the marriage, and it works out okay.
The expectation of marriage up until relatively recently was that you would have an economic relationship and a reproductive relationship, but you weren't best friends.

Traditions are experiments that worked. Social circle—meeting through friends, family, community—was the traditional way. That’s how my parents met. But it’s been in decline for years.

There are a few factors making social circle more difficult:

Increased transience - People often move long distances for school and/or work
Sparse IRL networks - Average number of close friends has declined

Gender silos - Single men looking for friends will most likely to find other single men. And same for women.
Fewer Third Places, places other than work and home where people meet and hang out
Less young people as a % of population

Drawing by Jamie Nicholson @JamieNicholson1

The ideal IRL social network is so dense that you can’t see through it. What appears to be more common today is a sparse network of lone individuals, isolated couples, gender silos, and few IRL local connections.

Drawing by Jamie Nicholson @JamieNicholson1 illustrating unhealthy vs healthy IRL social networks.

Another thing worth noting is the increase of chronic illness. When I look for a partner, I’m looking for someone healthy.

This year, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention reported that 42% of Americans have 2 or more chronic illnesses. I can only interpret this report as an admission of failure.

In May 2024, the CDC reported, “More than 2 in 5 U.S. adults have obesity.”

In 2023, Harvard reported, “Thirty-six percent (36%) of young adults who responded to the survey reported anxiety, 29% of young adults reported depression”.

The CDC also reported,

In 2021, there were an estimated 57.8 million adults aged 18 or older in the United States with Any Mental Illness. This number represented 22.8% of all U.S. adults.
The prevalence of AMI was higher among females (27.2%)
Young adults aged 18-25 years had the highest prevalence of AMI (33.7%)
Young adults aged 18-25 years had the highest prevalence of Severe Mental Illness (11.4%)

These numbers are shocking and sad. But it appears to be the reality of the situation.

If the standard for a partner is healthy weight and healthy mind, many if not most of the few options are eliminated. It’s important, at least to some extent, to meet people where they are.

The Apps

Virtually all my dates have come from the apps. Tinder, Bumble and Hinge are the big three. Hinge is the most popular for young people looking for a relationship. I know three couples who formed from Hinge dates.

Sometimes it works, but often it does not.

How dating apps changed the game:

Men who are 9s and 10s will sleep with women who are 5-8s, because it’s relatively easy, and they get off on casual sex with strangers. The 5-8s then believe 9-10 is their league for marriage.

Average and attractive women often get bombarded with matches and messages. They experience a bottomless well of men lusting after them on the apps. They filter based on height and photos because that’s what they have to work with. But they actually care more about other qualities, which they can’t sort for with the apps.

The majority of men on the apps get few matches and/or regularly “ghosted”- the person abruptly stops responding.

The incentives of the for-profit “dating” apps are to keep people single and swiping.

I talk to men all around America. New York, Boston, LA, Chicago, Florida. It’s the same report everywhere. There is a dating problem.

I chatted with my childhood friend, who just finished working on Joker 2. Back in the day, we would kiss girls on the trampoline behind his parent's house. Now he’s a solid 9 living in LA.

I went on a date with a girl from Hinge. She started bombarding me with messages.
My friends said “You should ghost her.”
I said, “I’ll call her.”
They’re like “No that would be weird.”
I called this girl. I said, “Hey, what’s going on?”
“I like to be all in,” she said.
I said, “That’s not how I do things.”
Neither of us was gonna change

“When I was in Peru,” I said. “I showed my friend Daniel how to use the apps. He got a bunch of matches. He showed up to the first date and the girl was mentally retarded.”

We laughed.

“Everyone fucking sucks right now,” he said. “LA is like the fuckin Mecca of the shit storm that is modern dating. The fuckin checklist people have. If you don’t check the boxes it’s No thanks.
There’s a viral video of girl saying, “I’m looking for a man in finance, 6’ 5, blue eyes, trust fund.”
It was satire. But it’s not satire.
Guess what love, you’re not gonna be with that guy.”

Hypergamy

Naturally, women prefer to marry up in status. In America, on average, women are high status. Most college grads are women. Big corps want to hire women execs. The number of men making more money than women has dwindled.

Recent civilizational changes have devalued men. In times of war, hunting, and manufacturing, men are extremely valuable. Now we live in a service economy and bureaucracy that favors the natural inclinations of women.

Women are making more money than ever, which is great, but it’s hard to marry up when you’re on top.

Travel dating

Men are looking to other countries for partners. In downtown Lima, Peru, and saw a dozen light-skinned English-speaking males, such as myself, walking with young and healthy Latinas.

I’ve been to Colombia and Peru. Dating was one of the primary motivations. It’s night and day. In America, I’m a 7. In South America, I’m an 11. I’ve had more intimate relationships in three months in South America than three years in the US. But there are problems with travel dating. Language barriers, visa barriers, and gold diggers are a real thing.

I feel for the South American men watching wealthy foreigners scoop up their best women and fly them to the promised land. So it goes.

I can be flexible, but my preference is a partner who is already an American citizen.

Barring dating apps, social circle, cold approach, travel dating, and mail-order brides, the only other options I see are working with a matchmaker and attending singles events.

I asked a chatbot, Who are the best matchmakers?

Master Match

I did a call with Kristin from Master Matchmakers. She had her sales pitch dialed in.

Matchmaking plus coaching, with five guaranteed introductions. It’s a $4500 investment and we work with you for as long as it takes.
It’s not open door. We don’t take unattractive or not looking for marriage. No smokers.
“85% of the time people date after the first date.”
“It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when.”
“Statistically we are successful in five introductions. [With our clients] it’s 98% success, 2% parted ways.”
“There’s not many quality people out there in the single world.”
“I would never take thousands of dollars from someone whose pictures look like no one is going to say yes to them. I wouldn’t take their money because I don’t think I can match them.”
“We’re a nationwide firm. I matched myself. I know this works because I’ve done it for myself.”
“We have a team dedicated to recruiting on LinkedIn, Bumble, Match”…“We reach out and say, We are a legitimate accredited matchmaker, are you interested in having a conversation?”
“Some clients pay $25k. It’s a lot of work, this is why it’s thousands of dollars.”
“There’s a direct correlation between your quality of life, happiness and lifespan, and who you’re in a relationship with. Completely alone or with the wrong person is detrimental.”
“It’s a 3 hour long coaching session initially. We fully understand who you are, who you were, and where you’re going.”
“Most clients are $9500.”

Overall, Kristin’s sales pitch was impressive, the pricing seemed fair, and they have decades of experience. I told her I’m moving to Boston, and I’ll get back to her.

Keeper

I also got on a call with Wes, co-founder of Keeper.ai, a matchmaking startup who gets paid $XX,XXX when the client gets married to a match.

Basically we've got about 270,000 people right now.
You need AI because with that many people, it's just way too many pairings for matchmakers to evaluate.
So you answer like 100 questions from us. A lot of it is just open form responses, tell me your thoughts on XYZ.”
What the AI basically does is take it from 100,000 potential matches down to less than 100.
Then the human matchmakers take over. One man and one woman is going to review every match.
Last week, we had two new engagements and our first baby, which is exciting.
If we send you on a first date, it’s looking like a one in six chance you get married.

Part 2 is coming soon